Kevin Mccarthy’s time as Speaker of the House came to an unceremonious end on Tuesday, as the GOP leader found himself summarily defeated and humiliated by longtime rival Matt Gaetz.
The House of Representatives is now in chaos. There is no leader determining a path to the floor for legislation, no leader among Republicans setting an agenda for the weeks ahead, and no one to be the face of the lower chamber of Congress in budget negotiations with the White House and Senate.
Republicans are not set to begin elections for their next leader until next week, as it has become increasingly clear that no one in the caucus currently has the support that would be necessary to actually win election to the post. Steve Scalise and Tom Emmer, the majority leader and whip, respectively, are seen as his two most likely replacements. But neither has launched an official bid yet, and Mr Gaetz has made it clear that the road ahead will be no easier.
Asked by reporters on the steps of the US Capitol after the vote whether he would demand concessions from any GOP Speaker similar to those he extracted from Mr McCarthy in January, Mr Gaetz replied affirmatively.
He also answered a question from The Independent by indicating that he would seek to force the GOP caucus to move forward expeditiously with a series of votes on budgets that are likely to fail in the Senate.
“I think we should move on and find somebody else. What’s paralyzed the House of Representatives has been the failure of Speaker McCarthy. What paralyzed the House of Representatives was not taking up appropriations bills,” he said.
Mr McCarthy, meanwhile, is throwing in the towel. Having headed into the day with bold promises to win a second Speakership election via attrition, as he did in January, the California Republican’s confidence in his future chances eroded throughout the day and he ended Tuesday by making it clear he would not run again. He didn’t even seem sure if he would remain in Congress at all, telling a reporter at his press conference Tuesday evening: “I’ll look at that.”
So what happens now? The US Congress is in uncharted territory, in more ways than one. That was evident as some reporters asked Rep Jamie Raskin, a Democrat and constitutional law professor, whether the US still had someone third-in-line for the presidency given the absence of a House Speaker. Chuckling, a facetious Mr Raskin advised reporters that the GOP caucus must certainly have considered such a question before they moved to oust Mr McCarthy.
The basic answer: it’s unclear. Really, truly unclear. A congressional caucus of a major party has not been this divided at any point in recent memory, especially not while in the majority. And there are multiple different scenarios that could play out.
Option one: a new Speaker could be elected easily next week, having cut a deal with Matt Gaetz and his conservative allies over such issues as passage of budget bills, power-sharing concessions and more. The US Congress ends up back where it began in January, albeit with a new face at the head of the ship.
Option two: a new Speaker is not elected easily next week, and instead the House GOP conference is thrown back into an ugly election process that plays out in closed caucus meetings and the press. The personal attacks that were lobbed over the past weekend get worse, and the GOP caucus ends the week more divided than ever. Democrats make a move to install Hakeem Jeffries, and seek GOP moderates disgusted with Mr Gaetz to join them (they have already begun overtures to this note).
Option three: revenge of the mod squad. In this scenario, the rumblings of anger and disgust surrounding Matt Gaetz after his successful rebellion prove too much for anyone to control. The House GOP caucus descends into open war. Moderates push a motion to expel Mr Gaetz (they have already begun talking about doing so). Mr Gaetz, already a pariah among his caucus, is ousted or at the very least survives by the skin of his teeth. Moderates chart a path to electing one of their own over the objections of a chastised right wing. And sitting quietly in the corner is Joe Biden’s campaign team, guffawing and ribbing each other while their enemies tear themselves to pieces in front of the Capitol press corps.
Truth be told, any of these scenarios are possible, and it was hard to say which one is likelier than the rest as lawmakers headed home on Tuesday evening. Capping off the party’s woes, its de facto leader Donald Trump refused to take a side in the fight, and instead denounced those involved for infighting on his social media platform on Tuesday. After putting his thumb on the scale of nearly every important Republican primary race in 2022, Mr Trump now appears unwilling to use that same political capital to boost a candidate for Speaker of the House.
Republicans are in the wilderness now. The only certainty within the lower chamber appears to be that the House is more divided than ever; Republicans don’t trust their own caucus members, to say nothing of how they feel about Democrats. And the party is heading into an election year with the hopes of protecting a single-digit majority.
Buckle up!
