A new report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) suggests the national homicide rate this year will hit a historic low, continuing a downward trend that began in 2022. In January, the CCJ estimated that the 2025 homicide rate would be the lowest since at least 1900, and the latest numbers indicate that the 2026 rate will be even lower. Other kinds of crime are also down, in some cases dramatically.
That development is surely welcome news. But we should be skeptical of the explanations offered by politicians of both major parties, who habitually reduce a complex reality to evidence in favor of the policies they have long supported.
