Grand Theft Auto VI hasn’t even launched yet and economists are already counting the cost. The game arrives on Nov. 19 and estimates suggest U.S. businesses could lose around $1 billion in productivity during launch week. So many people intend to take the day or even the whole week off that the impact on the country will be significant enough to pay attention to. Men aged 18 to 30 are the ones most likely to take time off from work for the game's launch, and because many of them work in tech, that sector expects the sharpest dip.
Some fans are treating Nov. 19 like a public holiday. One software engineer quoted by The Wall Street Journal said that he blocked off a full working week for GTA 6, and he is far from the only one. Economist Jose Garcia Montalvo estimates that the U.S. could see a roughly 2% short-term productivity drop around the launch, which is where the $1 billion figure comes from.
Why It’s a Win for Take-Two
Everything that makes GTA 6 a headache for employers makes it a gift for Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), the company that owns Rockstar Games. People do not give up paid vacation for a game they will play once and shelve. That same commitment keeps players spending long after launch, which is where Grand Theft Auto makes its money. GTA 5 has earned for more than a decade through GTA Online, and GTA 6 is arguably the most anticipated game in history. The rush to book time off strongly suggests it is set up to hold players the same way.
Take-Two is guiding for $8 billion to $8.2 billion in net bookings for fiscal 2027, with GTA 6 as the centerpiece. Management has called pre-orders “unprecedented,” but CEO Strauss Zelnick does not want to celebrate too early. He said that the company hasn’t “sold one unit yet” since a pre-order can be cancelled.
To me, a workforce willing to give up paid days off indicates the demand is real. That lost $1 billion looks small next to what Take-Two stands to collect.
About TTWO Stock
Take-Two Interactive develops, publishes, and markets interactive entertainment solutions for consumers worldwide. The company owns and publishes some of the gaming industry’s most popular franchises, including Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption. The firm is also famous for various entertainment properties across various platforms and a range of genres, such as shooter, action, strategy, and sports. Take-Two’s products are designed for console gaming systems and mobile devices. Founded in 1993, the company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Over the past year, TTWO stock has declined 17%, underperforming the S&P 500’s ($SPX) gain of roughly 16% during the same period. The underperformance has been primarily driven by investor concerns over the timing and financial impact of Grand Theft Auto VI. While the company delivered strong fiscal 2026 results, the delay of GTA 6 and fiscal 2027 bookings guidance that fell short of expectations weighed on sentiment. The trend has continued this year as well, with TTWO stock down roughly 19% year-to-date (YTD), underperforming the S&P 500’s gain of 12% during the same period.
Take-Two’s valuation looks fair once you factor in what is coming. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.9 times appears steep at first glance, but the number is misleading. Heavy spending behind GTA 6 is weighing GAAP earnings down, which makes the stock appear pricier than it is. The price-to-sales ratio of 5.9 times is the cleaner read, sitting above the five-year average of around 5 times.
The EPS outlook seems promising. Analysts expect earnings growth of 91% in fiscal 2027 and 62% in fiscal 2028 as GTA 6 delivers its first full year. The balance sheet holds up, too. Take-Two holds $1.83 billion in cash against $2.94 billion in debt. The resulting net debt of just over $1 billion looks manageable for a company worth more than $38 billion. Moreover, with the launch of GTA 6 approaching, management believes it will reach a net cash position in this fiscal year itself.
Take-Two Maintains Fiscal 2027 Outlook as GTA 6 Hype Builds
Take-Two Interactive reported its first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on Aug. 7. The company reported net bookings of $1.39 billion, above guidance of $1.32 billion, helped by stronger-than-expected results from NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto. GAAP net revenue for the quarter was $1.53 billion, up 2% from a year earlier. The company saw operating expenses of $918 million, flat year-over-year (YOY) on a GAAP basis. Take-Two described the quarter as an excellent start, pointing to the strength of its major labels and the continued performance of live-service content. Meanwhile, the company’s mobile business was mixed, with net bookings declining 7% YOY.
Looking forward, management reaffirmed its full-year 2027 outlook. The company expects net bookings to be between $8 billion and $8.2 billion. GAAP net revenue is expected to be between $7.9 billion and $8.1 billion. CFO Lainie Goldstein updated the expected label mix net bookings to roughly 37% from Rockstar Games, 34% from Zynga, and 29% from 2K. Capital expenditures are now planned at approximately $290 million, up from the prior forecast “due to a planned real estate purchase.” For Q2, the company guided net bookings of $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion and GAAP net revenue of $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion.
What Do Analysts Expect for TTWO Stock?
On Sept. 16, Wells Fargo analyst Alec Brondolo reiterated a “Buy” rating on TTWO stock and assigned a price target of $300. Similarly, Bank of America Securities analyst Omar Dessouky recently maintained a “Buy” rating with a price target of $368. The analyst gave the positive rating because he believes Grand Theft Auto VI will strengthen the long-term value of the franchise with upgraded gameplay, visuals, and story, offering the potential to generate revenue for many years after launch.
Based on 29 Wall Street analysts with coverage, TTWO stock holds a consensus “Strong Buy” rating on Wall Street. The mean price target of $290.40 reflects potential upside of 40% from current levels. The high price target is $368 per share, while the lowest price target of $245 remains higher than the current share price. This suggests Wall Street remains optimistic about Take-Two's long-term outlook.
