Recently the asteroid 2024 YR4, which is expected to pass Earth in 2032, was calculated to have a 1 in 83 chance of striking our planet. Then a week passed and suddenly there was a new headline: Asteroid 2024 YR4 was now believed to have only a 1 in 43 chance of striking our planet — the highest odds ever recorded for a space rock to hit our planet. Later the space rock fluctuated again, this time to a figuratively and literally astronomical 1 in 59,000 chance for impact.
In short, asteroid 2024 YR4 went from breaking records for known threatening asteroids to being a near-zero threat. At some point in the near future, this risk may be out of date.
