The question is no longer whether a third intifada could happen, but what can be done to avert it. In a recent poll, 61% of Palestinians and 65% of Israeli Jews believed it was on the horizon. As violence escalates, the crisis of domestic political leadership demonstrates why others must step up; but Antony Blinken has demonstrated that no one should expect the US to do so. The secretary of state flew to the Middle East this week for talks with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Palestinian president and prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas and Mohammad Shtayyeh, but vague calls for calm won’t end the crisis.
Some have argued that a third intifada is under way already. Last year was the bloodiest on record in Israel and the West Bank and Jerusalem since the second intifada ended in 2005, with about 150 Palestinians and 30 Israelis killed, and another 49 Palestinians killed by Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip in August. Then, last Thursday, the deadliest Israeli army raid in the West Bank in decades killed 10 Palestinians. A day later, a Palestinian gunman shot dead seven Israelis outside a synagogue – the worst such terrorist attack in years. Further copycat and retaliatory attacks have followed.
