The departure of Vaughan Gething as Welsh first minister was a short time coming. Mr Gething was forced to resign after just four months because of his high-handed behaviour towards political opponents and Labour colleagues, as well as his contempt for the norms of democracy. Mr Gething’s legacy is a divided Labour party in Wales, one riven by personal and ideological differences. These had been building for years. But the first minister’s actions only made the disagreements more disagreeable.
Although Welsh Labour won its 28th general election in a row this month, the results effectively sealed Mr Gething’s fate. On the surface, the Tories were routed in Wales, losing all 14 MPs. Yet this disguises the fragmentation of politics in the country. On the right of politics, the Conservatives haemorrhaged votes to Reform. While Labour’s vote share increased by 1.6% across the UK, in Wales it fell by 3.9% – with the nationalist Plaid Cymru and the Greens eating into the leftwing vote and increasing their shares by 4.9% and 3.7% respectively.
Labour’s landslide is a result of the first-past-the-post electoral system. If the poll had been held under proportional representation, Labour would have probably only won 12 out of 32 seats in Wales. The problem for Mr Gething – and Welsh Labour – is that the 2026 Senedd elections will take place using a PR system that reflects the share of the vote each party has received in constituencies that map onto current parliamentary boundaries.
Labour currently holds half the seats in the Welsh parliament, but on its current polling might only end up with a third of them in two years’ time. This might not be bad news. The devolved parliament was set up so that politics would be conducted consensually. There’s a lot to be said for a more pluralistic form of governance. But Labour would prefer not to be weakened further. This is a distinct possibility unless the party can elect a new leader who can command public confidence, win the backing of their own members and work with opposition parties.
This gets to the heart of what devolution is about. Is it a chance to rejuvenate Welsh democracy or just a way for the Labour party to preserve its power in Wales? It may also be both. But the leadership contest to succeed Mr Gething is likely to heighten the differences between what the political scientist Nye Davies describes as the “two distinct ideological tendencies” in Welsh Labour. The pro-devolution tendency argues for greater devolution and the recognition of Welsh difference, while the unionist tendency, which is predominantly made up of Welsh MPs, has tended to be more sceptical towards these demands.
“Two Labour governments; working together for Wales’ and Britain’s Future” was the message during the election campaign. The tensions between the devolved government in Cardiff and Westminster require creative dealmaking, rather than meek deference, to resolve. The NHS in Wales is in a terrible state and urgently needs money from the Treasury. Sir Keir Starmer’s team is reluctant to accede to demands from Welsh Labour to devolve criminal justice. Yet the developments that have occurred in Wales since devolution – political disengagement, the rise of the far right, the vote for Brexit – reveal a political settlement in need of urgent repair.
