As Ukraine wakes up to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion, exhaustion is setting in. A year ago, there was still cautious optimism about the counteroffensive. But hopes of a breakthrough were dashed and Russia’s capture of the eastern city of Avdiivka last week was its biggest gain since the capture of Bakhmut last May.
Ukrainians are not giving up. But this grinding war is wearing down troops at the front, civilians at home and their leaders. The mood of national unity has given way to a more complicated resolve. Those who have served on the frontlines, or who have lost loved ones there, may have mixed feelings about life going on elsewhere in the country. Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s sacking of his top commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, highlighted tensions at the top.
At least 10,000 civilians have died since February 2022, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers (along with tens of thousands of Russian troops). An estimated 3.7 million people are displaced internally, and more than 6.3 million have fled abroad. Families and homes have been destroyed and lives uprooted. The estimated cost of recovery and reconstruction has risen to $486bn.
For the most part, however, Ukrainians still see little choice but to fight on. Few believe that Moscow could be trusted to abide by any settlement. The bigger issue is war fatigue overseas – however repugnant that may seem to Ukrainians, given the ordeal they are enduring. Shock at the invasion, and admiration for Ukrainian valour, have waned with time. The realisation that there will be no easy victory, the war in the Middle East and the cost of living crisis are consuming the attention of western leaders and reducing domestic appetites for giving aid.
Impressive ingenuity by Ukraine – such as the creative use of drones – cannot bridge the disparity in arms. Russia has rapidly ramped up production and found a new supplier in North Korea, while US political dysfunction has left Kyiv short and the EU, which had promised a million shells by March, can supply only half of them by then.
The shift to a war footing, along with the deepened relationship with China and continued business with much of the world, have shored up the Russian economy in the face of unprecedented western sanctions. The 500 new sanctions imposed by the US over the war and the death of Alexei Navalny will not fundamentally change that. Mr Navalny’s death also underscored the eradication of domestic opposition. Vladimir Putin has no reason to seek an exit when he believes that the west is wearying of the war and Donald Trump may soon return to the White House.
Yet there is no sign of a quick and simple Russian victory, as many anticipated two years ago. The conflict has fundamentally transformed the European security outlook. Europe is wrestling more seriously with the understanding that the US can no longer be relied upon as its guarantor. Finland is now a member of Nato and Sweden will soon follow. The EU has agreed to open accession talks with Kyiv, although it is hardly pressing ahead at full speed, and the UK and others are signing bilateral security agreements. Above all, Ukraine is still fighting, despite the immense human cost. Europe and the US must make good on their commitments to ensure that Kyiv has the aid it needs to continue.
