Few elections have been more closely contested or more important than those taking place in Turkey on Sunday. Voters face a stark choice which will not only define their country’s future, but reverberate more widely. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been part of a broader global shift towards authoritarianism. His defeat, after 20 years in power, could allow Turkey to move back towards democracy and greater freedom – the pledge which unites the multiparty opposition Nation’s Alliance. Another victory for him might see it slide into outright autocracy – leading to the destruction of essential institutions and civil society, already badly damaged by the assaults of the president and his Justice and Development party (AKP).
Polls place the opposition coalition only just ahead, though Thursday’s withdrawal of another opposition candidate may boost its prospects. Candidates must win 51% in the first round to avoid a runoff, which experts think would favour Mr Erdoğan. There is also concern that a narrow opposition victory might not carry the day. Elections still matter in Turkey: Mr Erdoğan wants a mandate. But that also depends on winning, and these are not fully free and fair. In 2019, the election watchdog ordered a rerun of Istanbul’s mayoral race after the AKP’s defeat, though the original victor triumphed again. The president has browbeaten the judiciary.
