The Guardian view on the UK recession: no growth and no ideas either

‘At the start of 2023, Rishi Sunak promised, in one of his five pledges, that his government would “grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country”. A year later, he has not grown the economy.’ Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

“We’re on the up!” claimed the Daily Express about the British economy on Thursday . Sorry, loyal Conservative cheerleaders, but exactly the reverse is true. Instead of being on the up, we’re on the slide. On Thursday, the Office for National Statistics announced that the UK is in fact in recession, with a 0.3% drop in gross domestic product for the last quarter of 2023 to follow a 0.1% drop in the third quarter. The economy is therefore getting smaller. This is a recession. It is a huge national blow, both economically and politically.

It is true that the slide into recession has been a gentle one. Few economists believe that the announcement portends a downward lurch to compare with the recession of 1980 or the one after the financial crisis in 2009, when GDP fell by more than 4%. Do not, though, be misled by talk of a “technical” recession. An economy is either growing or it is not. Ours is not growing. It is shrinking.