More than 3,300 Iranians, including 383 children, have been killed since the US and Israel launched their illegal war, authorities said this week. Asked about Wednesday’s ceasefire deadline, Donald Trump first said that he expected to resume bombing, then unilaterally announced that he was extending the truce “until discussions are concluded”. Whatever happens – or doesn’t – with the US-Iranian peace talks due to take place in Islamabad, the costs of this disastrous conflict will keep growing. The only thing that the sides have in common is that each needs peace, but thinks that it can force the other into significant concessions.
Iran has deployed its drones and missiles to punishing effect, but knows that its chief weapon is the economic pain it can inflict, primarily through control of the strait of Hormuz. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that a further escalation could trigger a global recession. Its head, Kristalina Georgieva, had already said that the crisis would remain a threat to the global economy even if it ended overnight. The costs mount over time. But while the pain is widely spread, it is far from evenly shared. The combination of higher energy, food and fertiliser costs will increasingly hammer poorer and heavily import-reliant nations.
