The early autumn has become a time of foreboding and angst in German politics. In the eastern states that have become strongholds for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, it has regularly made headline-grabbing advances in September elections. Only the refusal of mainstream politicians to form coalitions with one of Europe’s most extreme movements has kept it out of power.
This year, the lights are flashing red. Next weekend, when voters in Saxony-Anhalt cast their ballots, the signs are that the traditional firewall may not be enough. In polling, the AfD is currently scoring above 40% in the state, which could win it enough seats to govern on its own. Compared with the last election in 2021, its support has doubled; backing for the closest challenger, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has tumbled by almost 15%.
