This is an exceptionally bleak and frightening moment for the United States and the world. Donald Trump swept the electoral college and is on course to take the popular vote – giving him not merely a victory, but a mandate. If many voters gambled on him in 2016, they doubled down this time. Presented with a choice between electing the first black, female president on a promise of a sunnier future, and a racist, misogynist, twice-impeached convicted felon hawking hatred and retribution, they picked Mr Trump.
The stark divide between two Americas persists. But polls did not predict the scale of this victory. Only one president has previously won two non-consecutive terms. In 2021, Mr Trump seemed briefly to have lost his own party. Now he has increased his vote share across the country and multiple groups of voters. This – even more than the two assassination attempts en route – will convince him of his invincibility.
No party has kept the White House when so many voters have felt the US is going in the wrong direction. As vice-president, Kamala Harris was shadowed by incumbency when electors wanted change. Under Joe Biden, the US economy had a remarkable recovery. But it didn’t feel that way, and people voted accordingly. Mr Trump positioned himself as the change candidate.
Ms Harris ran a polished but truncated campaign: Mr Biden’s refusal to pass the torch sooner looks all the worse today. Yet the Democrats need to look deeper. Despite the stakes, many Democratic voters failed to turn out. There is a gender gap, but 52% of white women still voted for Mr Trump. Latino men, in particular, moved towards him: the racial divide remains stark, but may be closing somewhat while the educational gap expands. Many voters relish Mr Trump’s willingness to break the system, because they feel it is already broken for them.
Prejudice encouraged voters to see Mr Trump as a more effective leader than Ms Harris, along with a wrongful conflation of authoritarianism and strength. Many of his voters prioritised the economy. But they still knew they were picking a would-be autocrat who has vowed mass deportations and retribution against political opponents and journalists; who was described by his former top military commander as “fascist to the core”; who tried to overturn the will of the people in 2020 and sparked an armed insurrection.
We are not going back. But what lies ahead looks worse. His fact-light, erratic, nakedly transactional approach won’t change. This time he has control of the Senate and very possibly the House of Representatives; a blank cheque from the supreme court; and a renewed faith in his supremacy and in pandering to voters’ basest instincts. There will be few “adults” to restrain him. His victory address offered a vision of a court rather than a cabinet, with Elon Musk as a new American oligarch. Expect his supporters to pursue their own programme.
Expect, too, the rollback of LGBTQ+ rights and the pardoning of the January 6 rioters. He does not need to fulfil every promise to do more than enough. Easily avoidable diseases could run rampant without an actual ban on vaccines. He does not have to deport millions to destroy families and foment racial hatred. Tariffs threaten trade war and higher prices at home.
Ukraine faces being strong-armed into a bad deal with Vladimir Putin. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, who just sacked his defence minister and rival, Yoav Gallant, will be celebrating. Across the world, the far right is emboldened; US allies are rightly anxious. Mr Trump’s pledge to withdraw from climate accords and bolster fossil fuels would end all hope of keeping global heating to below 1.5C, experts believe.
An already treacherous world is becoming more so. Many in the US and beyond are despondent today. Yet Ms Harris warned supporters against despair as she conceded the election, but not the battle at its heart. As she urged, it is time to “roll up our sleeves” not “throw up our hands”: to recommit to defending democracy and all of those imperilled by Mr Trump’s return.
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