Donald Trump has an excess of companions in the race for the Republican nomination for 2024, but a paucity of rivals. The quantity of candidates in the presidential primary so far appears in inverse relationship to the threat they pose to him. The main question prompted by several recent declarees is not how they might win or what they might offer, but simply “why?” (Mike Pence, Chris Christie), or even “who?” (Perry Johnson).
No one can predict what will happen in this race, and upsets do happen. Large fields and long shots positioning politicians for a future bid or the vice-presidential slot on the ticket are nothing new in primaries. Nor are improbable, often self-funded entrants. But the current flurry of activity – Mr Pence, former New Jersey governor Mr Christie and North Dakota’s governor Doug Burgum all announced runs this week – seems to be prompted less by the belief that Mr Trump is beatable than by the belief that Ron DeSantis isn’t the man to beat him. The Florida governor surged in polls after winning by a landslide in the midterms, while Trump-backed candidates fell short. It did not last.
Mr Trump’s savaging of Mr DeSantis shows he takes nothing for granted. But he is polling more than 50% among Republicans, while Mr DeSantis is a distant second on about 20%. Mr Trump has the status of a former president, yet pitches himself as an insurgent. His personal conduct and erratic politics are already priced in, and he has delivered for his base – notably on the supreme court and, therefore, abortion. Some still like the idea of Trumpism without Trump: a more competent, less reckless version of the former president. But Mr DeSantis has appeared awkward on the campaign trail. While he counts on a hard line on social issues – including abortion and the battle with Disney – to help him regain ground, it may be unsettling donors.
Mr Pence trails in distant third: though vice-presidents often win presidential nominations, he is loathed both for backing his former boss’s iniquities until the 11th hour – and for certifying 2020’s election results and rejecting the lie that Mr Trump had won. His support is in single digits, at about 5%, as is that for Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, and Mr Trump’s ambassador to the UN. Tim Scott, also of South Carolina, and only the second black Republican senator ever directly elected, has impressed some pundits but is even further behind.
The concern of anti-Trump Republicans is that the sheer number of candidates will split the votes of those pondering an alternative. While Mr Christie has laid into Mr Trump, and Mr Pence did so in his campaign launch, Mr DeSantis has vacillated before hardening his line – and still refuses to comment on Mr Trump’s claims that the last election was stolen.
The others criticise him only in veiled terms. They hope to pick up Mr Trump’s supporters should he be hobbled, perhaps due to some unforeseen act or his multitude of legal woes. Prosecutors have formally notified the former president that he is a target of the criminal investigation examining the retention of national security materials. It is far from clear that any of the cases against him will obstruct his return. Yet the biggest threats to Mr Trump’s political prospects still appear to remain outside his party.
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