Viewed through the Westminster prism, UK electoral politics seems a five-party contest. The narrative has been well aired in the conference season. The three established parties – Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – are each battling to peg back the Reform UK surge, with the Greens hovering in the wings. In Scotland and Wales, however, there are different pictures that the Westminster prism does not see. In both countries, the UK parties still fight their corners. Yet the main nationalist parties – the Scottish National party and Plaid Cymru – are reaping the benefit. In Scotland, the SNP has a clear polling lead, while in Wales, Plaid is head-to-head with Reform UK. Caught between the two, the established parties find themselves battling for survival.
With the nationalists holding their respective annual conferences this weekend, and crucial elections next spring to the devolved parliaments, observers across the UK need to be clear. Much of the political wind in 2026 will blow from the north and the west. Next year, both the SNP and Plaid Cymru could be government parties, a familiar role for the former, but a spectacular turnaround for the latter.
