The opposition parties in England have good reason to be gleeful. Results from the local elections in 230 English councils show the Tories being squeezed on both sides of the Brexit vote. Conservatives are losing badly in areas that voted remain in 2016, while Labour is gaining most in places that voted leave. The BBC projected Labour with its biggest lead over Tories in local elections since 1997. Voter estrangement from the Conservatives is producing an electoral realignment that spells doom for the governing party.
The big winners from this ongoing process are undoubtedly the Liberal Democrats. Thursday’s elections show that Sir Ed Davey’s party is continuing to make spectacular gains deep into Tory territory – notably securing a bridgehead in councils represented by senior Tories, including two former prime ministers. The Conservatives also lost power at Stratford-on-Avon council for the first time after the Lib Dems won 15 seats, with Rishi Sunak’s sacking of the town’s Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi coming up on the doorstep.
The Greens won sole control of an English council, Mid Suffolk, for the first time. Mr Sunak’s Tories, meanwhile, look set to lose the hundreds of seats that his party chair warned three weeks ago could be gone.
There’s no straight line between electing councils and electing the UK parliament. All elections are indeed local, but some are less local than others. The scale of the losses is evidence that Mr Sunak’s Tory makeover has merely applied lipstick to a pig. The only upside for the Conservatives is that Labour is not quite projected to win an overall majority. On these results, however, it would be the largest party in the next parliament. Sir Keir Starmer has a mountain to climb, but he is determinedly clambering up the rock face.
The reason for the opposition’s success is in part because of the return of tactical voting. This benefits both Labour and the Lib Dems because since 2019 there have been two clearcut battlegrounds in England: one between Labour and the Conservatives; the other between the Lib Dems and the Tories. There are few constituencies which see Labour and the Lib Dems fighting for power. If opposition voters lend support to beat a common enemy, then the Tories will be in trouble.
The poor results will reduce Mr Sunak’s chances of uniting the factions in Tory ranks. A truce appeared to be holding, but with hundreds of former councillors angry with the Tory leadership, it might put the party’s MPs in a rebellious mood. It would be a mistake for Mr Sunak to think the answer lies in party management rather than effective stewardship of the country.
While voters might think the Tories have not done enough to alleviate the cost of living crisis, they accept it is a problem with roots in external events. The same cannot be said of the decrepit state of public services – particularly the NHS. The Conservative party cannot shirk its role in smashing up state provision. It needs to correct the mistakes it has made. Calls to bring back Boris Johnson, who was largely absent in this campaign, reveal the depths of desperation in the party. Shifting to the right to manage his party will rightly be seen by voters as symptomatic of Mr Sunak’s failure to address the problems Britons face – and will shorten the odds that the Tories will lose the next election.
