What should Britain do when war in the Middle East sends energy prices soaring? If the strait of Hormuz were blocked for the month of fighting that Donald Trump predicts, British households could face another brutal cost of living shock. Goldman Sachs warns of prices at the pump rising to 2022 levels. That would put more than 50p on each litre in the tank. Prolonged disruption to global gas supplies could see energy bills in the UK rise by £900 to £2,500 a year. Such uncertainty strengthens the case for going big on clean energy.
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, has grasped this reality. By contrast, the Conservatives and Reform UK are doubling down on domestic fossil fuel extraction. The debate is framed around a simple claim of energy security: drill more at home. But the argument is rhetorical. Britain might export a bit more crude and have a smidgen more gas. But it would still need to import refined fuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Households would remain exposed to global energy shocks. Clean electricity, by contrast, cuts gas demand and reduces exposure to volatile markets. The political pressures are jobs, tax revenues and the economies of Scotland and north-east England tied to a declining asset.
