The political signals coming from France are ominous. According to one poll last week, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party (RN) has increased its lead to a runaway 15 points ahead of June’s European elections. For Emmanuel Macron, who pledged to use the French presidency to halt the rise of the far right, all indicators point to a humiliating defeat that would overshadow the remainder of his second term. But ahead of what will surely be the most important presidential election for a generation, in 2027, the numbers also send a powerful message to France’s perennially divided left.
Add up support for the four main progressive parties, which are running separate European campaigns, and their combined share of the vote comes within touching distance of the RN. The recent default setting in French politics has been a choice between Mr Macron’s technocratic centrism and the nationalist, xenophobic right – which has benefited from the disappearance of industrial life that had sustained workers’ participation in the political left. But manifestly, the space for a viable alternative is there. The difficulty lies in finding a way to occupy it successfully.
One major obstacle is the continued influence and prominence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the charismatic but deeply divisive leader of France Unbowed. After performing better than any other leftwing candidate in the 2022 presidential election, Mr Mélenchon became the de facto leader of a new progressive parliamentary alliance. Predictably, it has since fallen apart as a result of his maverick foreign policy views, autocratic style and increasingly intemperate and eccentric rants.
Mr Mélenchon, who is 72, has run three times for the French presidency without making it to the second round runoff. Should he make a fourth attempt in 2027, there is no reason to believe things would turn out differently. Identifying a less polarising figure as a standard-bearer for the left is therefore vital. While the coming European elections are not a perfect guide to voting preferences in a national poll, they are providing an opportunity for one contender to shine.
After plunging to a historic and embarrassing low in 2022, the Socialist party has dramatically revived after promoting the youthful centre-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann to the top of its list of candidates. As a pro-European social democrat, Mr Glucksmann has the potential to unite different constituencies on the left, and has notably attracted support from disillusioned former supporters of Mr Macron. Meanwhile, from within the ranks of France Unbowed MPs, François Ruffin has won plaudits for calling for a more pluralist approach to progressive politics than that adopted by Mr Mélenchon.
These are positive signs, and the stakes could not be higher. In 2002, the failure of the left, centre-left and greens to unite behind the Socialist party leader Lionel Jospin allowed the far right into a presidential runoff for the first time. Jean-Marie Le Pen then lost to Jacques Chirac by a landslide. But the formidable republican front that ensured an 82% vote for Mr Chirac no longer exists, and Ms Le Pen has legitimate grounds to believe that success in June can be a prelude to a victorious presidential campaign. Mr Macron will step down in 2027, after serving two terms as president, and the future of the centrist political movement he founded appears increasingly unclear. Progressives need to find a way to make common cause, and through doing so, a way to win.
