The Conservatives gather for their annual conference next week at a critical juncture. The main attraction in Birmingham is a parade of candidates to replace Rishi Sunak as leader, but the contest raises deeper questions about the future of a party that has lost its way. The Tories have been beaten before but never as savagely as they were in July, when voters evicted all but a rump of just 121 Conservative MPs from parliament.
From that pool there emerged six leadership contenders, subsequently whittled down to four – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat – who will attempt to woo audiences in Birmingham. Then MPs will halve the field, and the final two will go to a ballot of party members. A different mechanism operates in Scotland, where a new leader, Russell Findlay, was installed on Friday after a ballot in which just 4,155 votes were cast overall.
These rarefied processes militate against the selection of people qualified to confront the faithful with hard truths about the causes of their predicament. At the best of times, party conferences can feature scenes of dogmatic self-indulgence and cultural insularity. In the aftermath of a historic mauling by the electorate, retreat to an ideological comfort zone is practically assured. It would take a brave and exceptionally talented politician to defy that tendency and still enjoy the affections of the crowd. None of the contenders meets those criteria.
Notionally, Mr Tugendhat is the leftmost candidate, representing the Tory One Nation tradition, with Mr Jenrick running as standard bearer for the hard right, although Ms Badenoch competes for that status, while Mr Cleverly tilts more moderate. In reality the lines are blurred. Mr Tugendhat is a former remainer who now indulges the radical Eurosceptic delusion that Britain might leave the European convention on human rights. Mr Cleverly has pledged to bring back the ill-fated scheme to deport asylum claimants to Rwanda, despite reportedly dismissing the project as “batshit” when in government.
Mr Jenrick was a Tory moderniser in the mould of David Cameron when that was the dominant faction and has followed his ambition rightwards ever since. There is scarce evidence he has much in the way of principles beyond self-advancement. Ms Badenoch’s habit of stirring culture wars appears to arise from sincere conviction, but it is also marginal to the task of bringing her party back towards the electoral mainstream.
None of the candidates has said anything of substance about public services – why they matter, how they should be financed. None has dared to be contrite about failures in office and the succession of Tory prime ministers who were egregiously unfit for the role.
The Tories’ ignominious collapse in July ought to end talk of being the “natural party of government”. The prevailing narrative of defeat has been a lament of insufficient vigour in cracking down on immigration. That expresses terror of losing yet more support to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. It says nothing to voters who cost the Tories scores of seats by switching to the Liberal Democrats, often in dismay at the slide towards Faragism, already too far gone.
That silence is eloquent about the depths of denial in a Conservative party that has to decide whether it wants to engage in the complex reality of 21st-century statecraft or prefers wallowing in performative opposition and irrelevance. The right choice is unlikely to be made in Birmingham next week.
