A spate of recent statistics shows that the Chinese economy is faring poorly. The country was supposed to rebound after ditching its draconian “zero Covid” policies, but, after an initial revival, things have gone awry. Earlier this month it slipped into deflation. Key indicators, including industrial production, investment and retail sales, came in well below expectations.
The most concerning figure, however, is the one that we can’t see. The youth unemployment rate was suspended from the monthly economic data release, having reached a record 21.3% in June – suggesting not only that July was grimmer, but that improvement is not expected soon. The government has stopped publishing swathes of statistics in recent years. While there are many reasons for that, and while some may still be released to data firms, it has probably helped to bury some bad news, and makes it harder to cross-reference information. Chinese economists are also under pressure to avoid discussing negative indicators.
