To lose one Conservative seat may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose two looks like carelessness. Byelections on Thursday at either end of England saw Labour recapture a northern “red wall” constituency and the Liberal Democrats storm a true-blue bastion in Devon. Unhappy with a blundering and lying prime minister in a cost of living crisis, the people spoke. The question is whether the Conservative party is listening. Mr Johnson’s biggest asset was his ability to attract voters. He now repels them.
Electoral losses on this scale are unsustainable in the long run. The 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour in Wakefield would, if reproduced at a general election, deliver a Labour government. The Tory party would end up with 30-odd parliamentarians if it suffered the 29.9% swing from Tory to Lib Dems seen in Tiverton and Honiton. Yet Mr Johnson appears complacent, leaving Westminster for a week of summits abroad, with a promise that he will “keep going”. Given that Conservative voters won’t turn out for a Johnson-led party, this sounds more like a threat than a prediction.
