Across Europe, the sound of starting guns can be heard, as campaigning for the most consequential elections to the European parliament since 1979 gets under way. In Marseille at the weekend, Marine Le Pen and her Rassemblement party’s president, Jordan Bardella, pledged to roll back the European Union’s green deal and take back multiple powers from Brussels – including the right to impose draconian anti-migrant laws. Current polls suggest that this agenda will hoover up a record 30% of votes for Rassemblement, and inflict a humiliating defeat on President Emmanuel Macron.
Elsewhere, the overall numbers look equally grim from a progressive perspective. According to one analysis, the Eurosceptic, nationalist right is likely to top polls in nine EU states – including founding members Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as France – and come second or third in nine more, including Germany. In Rome, where Europe’s centre-left gathered to launch its own campaign on Saturday, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, warned that “the very soul of Europe is at risk”.
It would be a mistake to see such talk as campaigning hyperbole, or these elections as a mere sideshow compared with national polls. Mr Sánchez is right on two counts. First, stellar results for parties such as Rassemblement and Alternative für Deutschland in Germany would dramatically resonate domestically, setting the political agenda at the heart of the EU. The second reason is that while the Strasbourg parliament was once merely a glorified talking shop, it now exercises real power as a counterweight to the European Commission.
Traditionally, that heft has been monopolised by the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Party of European Socialists (PES). But a radical-right presence of similar weight – assuming its often fractious constituent parts could unite – could drag the EPP rightwards and jeopardise crucial environmental goals, migrant rights and future enlargement plans. The commission’s president and EPP lead candidate, Ursula von der Leyen – who hopes to be re-elected to another term by the incoming parliament – is already rattled. In response to farmers’ protests and cost of living anxieties, Ms von der Leyen recently U-turned on significant green deal commitments. On immigration, she has increasingly aligned herself with the hardline stance of Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister.
As conservatives seek to accommodate the agendas of more extreme rivals, progressive parties must stand up for a more tolerant, globally responsible EU. But defending the status quo is unlikely to be enough. Instead, Europe’s centre-left should vigorously make a case for levels of investment and support appropriate to the scale of the challenges being faced – through common EU borrowing instruments if necessary. A new economic orthodoxy is needed in Brussels to address insecurities which have created a sulphurous political mood. If the green deal, for example, is not to unravel, money will need to be found to reassure voters that they will be supported through the transition.
The aim of Ms Meloni, Ms Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and a growing cast of accomplices, is to use success in June’s elections as a platform from which to undermine the union from within. At a time of acute geopolitical uncertainty, with a possible Trump presidency looming on the horizon, that would be a damaging, deeply destabilising turn of events. Europe stands at a crossroads.
• This article was amended on 5 March 2024. An earlier version incorrectly described Pedro Sánchez as Spain’s president, rather than prime minister.
