Like so many voters around the world, Taiwan’s have put the economy at the top of their agenda. Yet when they go to the polls on 13 January to elect a new president and legislature, those day-to-day concerns will sit alongside the existential question of Taiwan’s future.
The island has enjoyed de facto independence since the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) fled there at the end of its civil war with the Communist party. But China claims sovereignty over it and has never ruled out using force to bring it into the fold. It has intensified its rhetoric and its economic and military pressure since the incumbent president, Tsai Ing-wen, of the Democratic Progressive party (DPP) won power in 2016. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sharpened concerns about Taiwan’s fate. In his new year address, Xi Jinping reiterated that “reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability”.
Ms Tsai is rare as a female leader in Asia who does not come from a political dynasty. She has steered Taiwan through the troubled waters of US-China relations deftly, as well as overseeing an impressive response to the pandemic. Taiwan also became the first place in Asia to legalise gay marriage on her watch.
As she steps down at the two-term limit, her vice-president, William Lai, is the frontrunner to replace her – but not by much. He once declared himself a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” and the rival KMT has sought to portray his party as risk-takers who could drag Taiwan into war by provoking Beijing. But Mr Lai has worked hard to reposition himself and reassure the US that he will not upset the status quo. He has adhered to the established DPP line that Taiwan need not declare independence because it is already independent – while suggesting the KMT could make concessions endangering its sovereignty and democracy.
For many voters, their biggest gripes with the DPP are low wages, high housing costs and poor public services. Mr Lai’s good fortune is that they don’t think much of the alternatives. The KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and third candidate Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s party tried to cut a deal but ended up in a humiliating public spat instead. Mr Ko, who initially attracted people disenchanted with the DPP but unwilling to back the KMT, has proved erratic and unimpressive.
Whatever the outcome, Taiwan’s election should be applauded. As authoritarianism advances across much of Asia, its vigorous debate and free and fair elections are a beacon for a better way of doing things.
Beijing has made it clear that it would dish out punishment for a third DPP term, perhaps targeting a cross-straits trade deal as well as stepping up military activity. It would probably throw a KMT government a bone or two. But its determination to control Taiwan’s future would not be lessened; and a political pathway to unification looks still more remote since the crackdown in Hong Kong.
The next president of Taiwan is likely to shape events less through proactive measures than his response to circumstances he cannot dictate: a crisis such as a military manoeuvre gone wrong, or more broadly, China’s internal politics, its military strength and – critically – its relations with Washington. Ultimately, as voters know, next weekend’s contest is likely to be less consequential in geopolitical terms than this year’s US presidential race and its ultimate winner.
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