In last year’s local elections the Liberal Democrats chalked up one of the party’s best performances since it entered into an alliance with the Tories in 2010. With no sign of the disaffection in the current government evaporating, Sir Ed Davey’s party is assured of more electoral gains. One might be tempted to think that the Conservatives could swat away the Lib Dem challenge, which rests on 14 MPs in the Commons. However, the yellow tide’s rise in May’s elections would be troubling confirmation for the Conservative party that voter alienation is driving an electoral realignment.
What has alarm bells ringing in Tory headquarters is evidence that people are willing to vote tactically for the candidate best placed locally to defeat the Tories. Last summer, pollsters predicted 26 Conservative constituencies in the so-called “blue wall” of southern England could fall to the Lib Dems. A year before, a Lib Dem triumph in Chesham and Amersham – Conservative since its creation in 1974– had come when the Tories were riding high in the polls. Since then the Conservatives have cratered. Sir Ed is now openly wooing Labour voters in Conservative-held commuter belt seats. The Guardian, at this moment, would urge these voters to set aside any lingering resentment at the Lib Dems and cast an anti-Tory tactical ballot.
For Sir Ed, the stakes could not be higher. Building up a strong local government base is key to enhancing the Lib Dems’ electoral credibility ahead of the next general election. This will be fought on two distinct battlegrounds in England: one between Labour and Conservatives; the other between Lib Dems and Tories. There are few fights between Labour and Lib Dems. To defeat a common enemy doesn’t need an overt pact between parties when their voters lending support will suffice.
There are good reasons to back the Lib Dems. The party has, under Sir Ed, produced sensible pro-European policies and consistently argued for proportional representation. The Lib Dem’s campaign to restore overseas aid to 0.7% of GDP deserves support. The policy to tax the windfall profits of banks and energy firms and use the proceeds to help struggling families is the right call.
The Conservatives say they have cleaned up their act. Rishi Sunak is an improvement on his predecessor Boris Johnson. But this is a low bar. Tory policies remain harsh and mean-minded. It’s not good enough for ministers to blame a banking crash from 2008 or the pandemic for 13 years of stagnating living standards. There is also a calculated cruelty that goes beyond rhetoric. The party’s last two prime ministers don’t even have the decency to confess to errors that cost the country dear. The government backbenches looked ragged and exhausted.
The only reliable law in politics is that there isn’t one. Come the next general election, voters might en masse decide that Labour could unseat the Conservative government on its own. But Sir Keir Starmer does not feel or sound – yet – like he is the wave of the future. The Lib Dems appear, therefore, essential to a project of national renewal. The mood of the country presents an opportunity as well as a threat to the party. Sir Ed is looking for a way to ride the swell of anti-Tory feeling rather than be swamped by it. If parliamentary byelection results are anything to go by, the good news for the Lib Dem leader is that he has shown he can surf the surging tide.
