During an election campaign dominated by the themes of immigration, multiculturalism and violent crime, a spokesman for the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) tweeted a picture of a metro train in the party’s colours, accompanied by the anti-migrant message: “Welcome aboard the repatriation express. Here’s a one-way ticket. Next stop, Kabul.” Its manifesto seeks to create one of Europe’s most hostile environments for non-Europeans and make asylum almost impossible to obtain. With its roots in the neo-Nazi movement, the SD caused an electoral earthquake this week by becoming the country’s second-largest party.
The election results leave a loose coalition of the SD and the three centre-right parties ahead by a majority of three in the parliament of 349 seats. The craven compliance of the Moderates, historically the largest of Sweden’s conservative parties, has let a party condemned as “neo-fascists” by the government and shunned for most of the past decade come this close to power. The SD is unlikely to be offered any ministerial posts, but will still be able to exercise considerable influence as the largest party in the electoral alliance. Denmark, Finland, Norway, and now Sweden, once seen as bastions of social democracy – albeit less so of racial equality – have all had, or have, governments either including or relying on populist, anti-immigrant parties.
There are also early signs that, from its new position of influence, the SD will pursue culture wars and pick fights with public service broadcasters over alleged elite bias against it. In a country historically admired for its consensual politics, further polarisation seems inevitable. It is shaping up to be quite an autumn for Europe’s radical right. In Italy, next Sunday’s election is expected to deliver power to a conservative coalition headed by Brothers of Italy, a party with neo-fascist roots. The SD’s victory brought tweeted acclaim from Marine Le Pen.
The likely leader of Sweden’s next government, the Moderate party leader, Ulf Kristersson, will not want Sweden to become a Scandinavian version of Hungary and Poland, where democratic checks and balances have been eroded and judicial independence undermined. If he did, the new administration’s tiny majority would quickly be at risk from its more liberal components. It is also true that under the brash leadership of Jimmie Åkesson, the SD has undergone a makeover, rebranding itself as a socially conservative, nationalist party and clamping down on overt extremism in its ranks. But that scarcely makes its new proximity to power any more palatable.
For the centre-right Moderates and the defeated Social Democrats (who topped the polls but could not command a majority), the SD’s seismic breakthrough poses awkward questions. Both parties have tacked heavily rightwards on immigration, hoping to see off the far-right threat – yet still shipped votes to the SD. Meanwhile, Mr Åkesson has succeeded in persuading many Swedes that the cost of absorbing asylum seekers has undermined a welfare state that has traditionally been a national badge of pride. Mr Åkesson’s ambition is, he says, for the SD to sit in government. That would be a gamechanger.
In the wake of the financial crash and the wave of refugees in the mid 2010s, this strategy of combining anti-immigrant sentiment with welfare nativism is allowing the radical right to make headway throughout Europe. Progressive politicians and parties need to find a better and more creative response than one of pale imitation.
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