As temperatures fall and a second winter of war approaches, Ukraine fears that the international enthusiasm for its cause that followed Russia’s invasion is cooling too. Slovakia halted military aid after pro-Russian Robert Fico’s party took power. Poland, one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, had already suspended weapons transfers following a dispute over Kyiv’s grain exports – though things may well improve after the opposition unexpectedly claimed victory in last week’s elections. Now US attention is consumed by the Middle East, and Russia will be keen to keep it there.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quick to voice his support for Israel last week following the atrocities by Hamas. But the Ukrainian president also warned that “there is only a certain amount of military support to share”. There may be direct competition for some weaponry. Mr Zelenskiy also acknowledged that next year’s US presidential election brings uncertainty. Last month, aid for Ukraine was stripped from a government funding package to ensure its passage through Congress. Hardline Republicans are increasingly vociferous in their opposition to supplying further aid, and are gaining traction, not least due to the battle to become House speaker. Some are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to cynically argue that the US can’t afford to back Ukraine too, although Kyiv’s supporters hope it may be possible to push through a joint Israel-Ukraine package. While US deliveries will continue for now, Kyiv could start rationing its use of arms if it cannot count on timely resupplies.
