As temperatures fall and a second winter of war approaches, Ukraine fears that the international enthusiasm for its cause that followed Russia’s invasion is cooling too. Slovakia halted military aid after pro-Russian Robert Fico’s party took power. Poland, one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, had already suspended weapons transfers following a dispute over Kyiv’s grain exports – though things may well improve after the opposition unexpectedly claimed victory in last week’s elections. Now US attention is consumed by the Middle East, and Russia will be keen to keep it there.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quick to voice his support for Israel last week following the atrocities by Hamas. But the Ukrainian president also warned that “there is only a certain amount of military support to share”. There may be direct competition for some weaponry. Mr Zelenskiy also acknowledged that next year’s US presidential election brings uncertainty. Last month, aid for Ukraine was stripped from a government funding package to ensure its passage through Congress. Hardline Republicans are increasingly vociferous in their opposition to supplying further aid, and are gaining traction, not least due to the battle to become House speaker. Some are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to cynically argue that the US can’t afford to back Ukraine too, although Kyiv’s supporters hope it may be possible to push through a joint Israel-Ukraine package. While US deliveries will continue for now, Kyiv could start rationing its use of arms if it cannot count on timely resupplies.
Earlier this month, European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, assured Ukraine that their support would not flag. But as Josep Borrell, the EU foreign affairs chief, pointed out, Europe cannot fill a US gap. In part, this is a question of logistics as well as willpower, with arms inventories still running low.
Ukraine’s first use of US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles to strike airbases in Russian-held areas on Tuesday may have offered a small fillip to morale. But its counteroffensive has failed to make significant progress, Moscow is finding fresh sources of manpower, and the White House says that North Korea has now shipped weapons to Russia. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s meeting in Beijing on Wednesday, at the belt and road initiative forum, also underscored that China is maintaining its staunch economic and diplomatic support. Russia believes that simply grinding on will not only sap Ukrainian morale, supplies and troops, but will also improve its odds as the mood in the US shifts.
The danger is not only that Russia holds and retakes territory. It is also that it will probably launch a renewed attack on Ukraine’s power grid to freeze the country into submission. Despite the extraordinary efforts of engineers, the system has not fully regained its prewar capacity.
At a time when maintaining solidarity with Ukraine is essential, diplomats say that unconditional western support for Israel’s assault on Gaza has caused significant damage. Russia launched an unprovoked invasion. Israel is responding to the massacre of at least 1,300 of its citizens by Hamas. Nonetheless, Joe Biden’s initially unqualified backing and EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s passionate denunciation of Russia targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, but silence on civilian infrastructure in Gaza, have been particularly noted. The “global south” is not an entity but a loose description of multiple players with their own agendas. They already know that the standards the US demands from adversaries and those it uses for itself and its allies are often strikingly different. But the disparity looks particularly glaring right now, as the deaths of Palestinian civilians mount, and Russia and others will capitalise on it.
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