First they turned upon Omar al-Bashir, the strongman they had served, when the Sudanese people rose up against the president. Then, in a coup, they turned upon the civilian politicians who had risen to power subsequently. Now they have turned upon each other. Many feared that Sudan’s General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the de facto leader and army chief, and Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the vice-president who controls the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and is known as Hemedti, would soon clash. But the explosion of violence last weekend, its scale and the rapidity with which it spread across the country, including to Darfur and eastern border regions, was nonetheless shocking and frightening.
Both men have a grim track record, playing leading roles in the brutal counterinsurgency campaign against rebels in Darfur, with the conduct of the RSF particularly notorious. The current conflict between them was triggered by plans to integrate Hemedti’s RSF – fostered by Mr Bashir as a counterweight to the army – into the regular military, under controversial plans supposed to bring about the country’s return to civilian rule following 2021’s coup. The two men appear to regard their fight as a matter of survival. Hemedti said that General Burhan would “die like any dog” if not brought to justice. The army has declared Hemedti a “wanted criminal”.
Meanwhile, terrified families have sheltered at home as the conflict rages around them, trapped without water or power and with dwindling food supplies. More than 180 people have been killed and 1,800 wounded, hospitals have come under attack, essential services have been cut and the World Food Programme has suspended desperately needed assistance after three of its employees were killed.
Reports of a possible 24-hour ceasefire on Tuesday raised tentative hopes of a respite. But there is little sign that either side is willing to relinquish violence. General Burhan has long enjoyed Egypt’s backing. Hemedti is supported by the United Arab Emirates and has ties to Russia’s Wagner group. Saudi Arabia has also taken a close interest. Should the violence continue, the very real danger is that a growing number of domestic and foreign actors will be sucked in, making it harder than ever to resolve. Beyond concerns for Sudan itself are fears that fighting could spill over into Chad, Central African Republic and other parts of the region.
An end to the fighting would be the first step. United and sustained international support for a ceasefire is needed. Under Donald Trump, the US effectively outsourced Sudan policy to regional players. Its re-engagement is overdue and welcome. Carefully targeted sanctions could play a role. The senior delegation that the African Union has promised might help ease the path of negotiations.
Once again, avaricious and power-hungry men have trampled upon the needs and wishes of Sudanese people. This outbreak has left pro-democracy activists further than ever from their goals, reorienting efforts from politics to meeting their compatriots’ basic needs and seeking to end violence.
Hemedti has portrayed himself as a protector of the 2019 revolution and some civilian leaders have, unenthusiastically, seen him as a possible defence against dictatorship under General Burhan. Yet the people are more politically conscious and organised than they have ever been, and for many at the grassroots, the last few days have confirmed that a shallow political process in a system dominated by two warlords cannot bring progress or even stability. Even in these grim times, those who have fought bravely and persistently to be heard will not abandon their ambitions.
