Labour’s victory in the Holyrood byelection offers the UK government a rare political comfort but not, perhaps, the strategic breakthrough it might like to imagine. A late flurry of welfare signalling, a dogged ground campaign and a carefully staged visit to a Govan shipyard by Sir Keir Starmer helped shore up Labour’s appeal to its traditional voters in Scotland’s industrial belt. Yet as Prof John Curtice has noted, Labour’s share of the vote actually declined compared with the last time voters cast ballots here in 2021 – a year in which the party was placed a distant third and was polling at the same dismal level of public support, 20%, it has today.
The prime minister will gladly pocket Davy Russell’s win in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. But it is a foothold. There is still a steep climb to the summit. More telling is who lost. The Scottish National party’s poor showing reflects dissatisfaction with its record of governance and the diminishing appeal of independence in areas where Labour has deep roots. The real surprise was Reform UK, taking over a quarter of the vote and leapfrogging the Conservatives into third place. It drew from both main parties, fuelled by protest and unionist anger that flattened the Tories.
