It is now more than a month since the death of Mahsa Amini – following her detention by morality police for “improper hijab” – ignited outrage in Iran. The protests set alight by the death of the 22-year-old Kurdish woman have persisted and thrived despite the regime’s brutality, and have gone far beyond women’s rights. They are not only the longest-running since the Green Movement emerged in 2009, but are more geographically and socially diverse. They build on previous demands, and go beyond them. Though women are at the forefront, men too have chanted “women, life, freedom”. Participants have ranged from bareheaded schoolgirls to their parents and even grandparents.
On one side we see the brutality of the riot police and broader security apparatus. Rights groups estimate that 215 people, including 27 children, have been killed in the protests and at least 1,500 arrested. Amini’s name in English and in Persian has reportedly become the most used hashtag in the world in the last six months. But the names of other women are becoming dismayingly familiar. There are growing concerns for an Iranian climber, Elnaz Rekabi, uncontactable since she competed in a tournament in South Korea without her hijab. Further unrest was sparked by reports that a 16-year-old, Asra Panahi, died after she was beaten by security forces for refusing to sing a pro-regime song during a raid on her school.
On the other side is the vulnerability of these protesters, armed only with their courage and defiance. The shouts of “death to the dictator!” have been heard before. But these demonstrations have exposed more clearly than ever the contrast between a hardline, insular gerontocracy that runs Iran and the young people it rules over. The population longs for social and political freedoms, and endures dire economic straits caused by corruption, incompetence and the punitive sanctions imposed by the west but brought on them too by their leaders.
Supporting these campaigners requires care, especially given that the regime blames outsiders for fomenting trouble. Understanding and amplifying the voices of those inside is critical, rather than attempting to speak on their behalf. That should include supporting their ability to access information as the government cuts off internet access, having become increasingly expert at doing so.
One analyst compares the situation to the Soviet Union in the early, not late, 1980s. The leadership is incapable of addressing inherent contradictions, but retains the will to fight and a fearsome capacity for repression. It faces immense pressure from below, but there is no sign of fissures at the top.
EU sanctions imposed on Monday will be limited in effect, but at least have the merit of being targeted at the morality police or leading figures in the regime. Any calls for broad-brush sanctions should be resisted; in any case, the west is running out of measures that might have a significant impact. The Trump administration’s strangling of the nuclear deal entrenched hardliners in Iran and has had a devastating effect on ordinary people, particularly women, while the elites have prospered. It has helped push Tehran closer to Moscow and Beijing: Iran is now supplying armed drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, to terrible effect – a breach of the nuclear deal, say France and the UK – and apparently plans to ship more drones and missiles.
These domestic and international developments make the prospect of progress on reviving the deal look more remote than ever. That being the case, the parties should explore narrower measures to avoid an escalation that would endanger many and risk punishing a population already so badly failed, in so many ways, by those ruling over it.
