The missiles that have rained down on Ukrainian cities far from the frontline since Monday morning, striking playgrounds and other civilian targets, are retaliation for the blast at the Kerch bridge between Russia and Crimea. But it is Vladimir Putin’s rage at the broader success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that has shifted the war from a grinding military stalemate into a more dangerous phase. The Russian president has realised that he is losing on the ground; that major democracies will not easily be bullied out of supporting Kyiv; and consequently that he can no longer count on Ukraine’s eventual capitulation. His response – annexation and mobilisation – has only increased the pressure on him, creating higher expectations among hawkish domestic elites of how far he will go, and alienating broader political support. The first deaths of mobilised soldiers were reported this week.
While Russia cannot sustain this rate of attack – 80 missiles on Monday alone – the civilian deaths and damage to water and power facilities will continue. Though the assault has so far stiffened resistance, rather than sapping morale, the approach of winter and the deterioration of infrastructure will take their toll on civilians. Ukraine will have to choose between deploying air defence systems to protect cities, or employing them in its counteroffensive.
