When elections come around, Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party is swift to reach for one of the crudest playbooks in European politics. In 2019, LGBT+ rights were described by the party’s chairman, Jarosław Kaczyński, as a “threat to Polish identity”, as it sought to maximise the conservative Catholic vote.
Four years on, ahead of October’s national poll, irregular migration is the chosen polarising theme. Last month, the prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki stated that the rape of a young Polish man in Munich, allegedly by an Afghan refugee, was a consequence of Europe’s “open borders”. To coincide with the election, Mr Morawiecki hopes to hold an anger-stoking referendum on EU asylum reforms, in which Polish voters will be asked whether they are willing to accept “thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa”. So far, so predictable. During two terms in office, Law and Justice has systematically sought to construct majorities by vilifying and marginalising minorities. Depressingly, however, its agenda is being outflanked from the right by an insurgent force that is hoovering up support among the young.
In what is set to be a close race between Law and Justice and Civic Platform, the main opposition party, polls suggest that a maverick far right, free-market movement could emerge in a kingmaker role. Confederation is led by the 36-year-old Sławomir Mentzen, a former tax adviser and TikTok star who combines cultural authoritarianism with tax-cutting, anti-welfare economics. In 2019, Mr Mentzen told a rally that his party’s support was derived from voters who “don’t want Jews, homosexuals, abortions, taxes and the European Union”.
As the cost of living crisis continues to bite, some summer polls found that Confederation had doubled its support to 15% in a year. Latest figures suggest that current backing is more like 11%, making it Poland’s third largest political movement. But the polling evidence also points to a much higher level of support among younger Poles, particularly young men living outside the major cities.
This is likely to be, in part, because of a sophisticated and canny social media presence. Mr Mentzen has 700,000 TikTok followers and a popular YouTube channel. But Confederation’s radicalism also taps into youthful discontent with an economy many perceive to be rigged in favour of older generations. Referring to the 74-year-old Mr Kaczyński and Donald Tusk, the 66-year-old leader of Poland’s liberal opposition party, Mr Mentzen said in one TikTok video: “Both are older than my parents. It’s about time to send them all to retirement, so they can stop affecting young people’s lives.”
Post-election influence for a movement that has advocated lengthy prison sentences for women who have abortions, and whose leader promoted a beer named “White IPA Matters”, would be very bad news for Poland. But the growing profile of Confederation also offers a warning to the rest of Europe.
From Vox in Spain to the AfD in Germany, far-right, digitally savvy parties are garnering youth support by presenting themselves as “anti-system” disruptors of a liberal consensus associated with the EU and the era of globalisation. For many coming of age in an era of economic stagnation and limited prospects for the young, a shake-up of the old order might appear desirable, whoever is doing the shaking. In Poland and beyond, mainstream progressive parties need to find a way to better address the concerns of this increasingly disillusioned generation.
