When elections come around, Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party is swift to reach for one of the crudest playbooks in European politics. In 2019, LGBT+ rights were described by the party’s chairman, Jarosław Kaczyński, as a “threat to Polish identity”, as it sought to maximise the conservative Catholic vote.
Four years on, ahead of October’s national poll, irregular migration is the chosen polarising theme. Last month, the prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki stated that the rape of a young Polish man in Munich, allegedly by an Afghan refugee, was a consequence of Europe’s “open borders”. To coincide with the election, Mr Morawiecki hopes to hold an anger-stoking referendum on EU asylum reforms, in which Polish voters will be asked whether they are willing to accept “thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa”. So far, so predictable. During two terms in office, Law and Justice has systematically sought to construct majorities by vilifying and marginalising minorities. Depressingly, however, its agenda is being outflanked from the right by an insurgent force that is hoovering up support among the young.
