The assassination of the Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio on Wednesday marked a frightening new moment, even in a country where homicide levels are rocketing. Rising violence and crime are the central issue of the election in which the former journalist fought. The 59-year-old, shot dead as he left an event in Quito, was a courageous whistleblower who campaigned on the slogan: “It’s time for the brave”.
While he had reported death threats from a gang leader, and the incumbent president, Guillermo Lasso, has blamed organised crime groups, much remains to be determined. Mr Villavicencio’s outspokenness on corruption and alleged links between organised crime and politics had made him enemies among the political class and in areas such as the oil industry. What is clear is that murder and violence linked to the drugs trade have soared in Ecuador in recent years, a pattern also seen in other Latin American countries previously regarded as relatively safe and stable, such as Chile.
The homicide rate rose almost fivefold between 2016 and 2022, to 22 people per 100,000. Guayaquil, the most violent city, registered nearly as many violent deaths in the first half of this year – 1,390 – as it did in the whole of last year. The national state of emergency declared by Mr Lasso in the wake of the assassination follows last month’s declaration of a state of emergency in prisons, where hundreds of prisoners have been killed in clashes. Guayaquil has seen multiple successive states of emergency declared after horrific violence, including a bombing.
Behind all this lies what the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime describes as “a prolonged surge in both the supply of and demand for cocaine” globally. Europe has bolstered demand as more American consumers have turned to fentanyl. Mexican cartels, Balkan gangs and even the ’Ndrangheta mafia have expanded into new territory, including Ecuador, supercharging local criminal groups and increasing both the frequency and the extremity of violence. At the same time, counter-drugs operations in Brazil, Colombia and Peru may have displaced some activity.
Many fear Ecuador is on the verge of becoming a narco-state. It sits between the world’s two largest cocaine producers, and its porous coastline and large fishing and shipping industries facilitate the trafficking of drugs. Its use of the US dollar also makes moving and laundering money easier. But pandemic-bred social and economic crisis, and political deadlock, have been critical in this slide into violence. The unpopular conservative president has battled an opposition-dominated congress and this spring dissolved it, calling early elections, when it sought to impeach him. Crime has penetrated not only the security forces and the judiciary but politics too. The strength and focus of the drugs gangs appears in inverse relationship to the weakness and distraction of the state and government.
In the past, some leaders in the region have resorted to brutal crackdowns that trample over rights and only fuel the problems in the longer run – as El Salvador is doing now – or cut quiet deals allowing gangs to continue their trafficking if they keep down the body count. There are no easy fixes, but Ecuador’s 18 million citizens lack confidence that their leaders are determined to solve the crisis. Crime this week wrought havoc on the nation’s politics – but it is political failures that have allowed it to flourish.
