As the Conservative party has charted an increasingly chaotic course towards the end of the current parliament, byelection sorrows have come not as single spies but in battalions. Thursday’s twin defeats to Labour in Kingswood and Wellingborough – comprehensive in the former, utterly humiliating in the latter – were the ninth and 10th Tory losses since 2019, a postwar record. The 28.5% blue-red swing to Labour in Wellingborough was the biggest since 1994, and the second-largest since 1945. Repeatedly across the country, and in different kinds of seats, the depth of the desire for change and a new political settlement is being made crystal clear.
In the aftermath of yet another torrid night for Rishi Sunak, Tory spinners pleaded mitigating circumstances, such as a low turnout and a protest dimension to the vote that will diminish at a general election. In Wellingborough, the choice of the partner of the disgraced Conservative MP Peter Bone as the party’s candidate to succeed him clearly added insult to injury as far as many constituents were concerned. But local factors aside, the sense of a party running out of time, options and ideas to turn things around is palpable.
For Mr Sunak, by far the most ominous takeout of the evening was the performance of the Brexit party’s successor organisation, Reform UK. In Wellingborough, a record election vote share of 13% confirmed the party as a potent threat to the Conservatives from the right, and places Mr Sunak in a strategic bind that appears all but insoluble. The rebellious right of his own party has been handed crucial ammunition as it calls for ever more extreme moves on immigration, including withdrawal from the European court of human rights. Yet such an approach risks haemorrhaging votes to Labour and the Lib Dems in “blue wall” seats Mr Sunak must hold in order to avoid a historic wipeout. If Nigel Farage, Reform’s honorary president, decides to enter the election fray as a candidate, the coming election will double as a vehicle for a bloody existential battle over the long-term future of British Conservatism.
Such a civil war scenario will, of course, be hugely to Labour’s benefit. After enduring a difficult month, Sir Keir Starmer can feel relieved that his party’s U-turn on its green deal and recent events in Rochdale did not deliver visible damage at Thursday’s polls. Translated nationally, the swings in Kingswood and Wellingborough would deliver respectively either a comfortable majority or a landslide.
Nevertheless, both byelections offered another sign of the times that should be viewed by Labour as less reassuring. Notably poor voter turnouts of less than 40% do not suggest a groundswell of enthusiasm for Sir Keir and his party’s hyper-cautious approach to winning power. This should give Labour’s strategists pause for thought as they seek a durable and progressive mandate. More broadly, widespread electoral apathy testifies to a disturbing crisis of faith in the ability of governments to address the challenges of the age – from the climate emergency to prolonged economic stagnation and broken public services.
After 14 years that have left Britain feeling poorer, angrier and more divided, the desire to see the back of the Tories is widespread and apparently immovable. For Labour, though, the challenge remains one of demonstrating its credentials as something more than a mere repository for antipathy towards a failed, exhausted government.
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