In a sort-of ceasefire, the killings – including of children – have slowed, not stopped. Israeli military operations continue to displace hundreds of families in Gaza. Aid has increased but Israel is still blocking vital supplies. Palestinians desperately require security, humanitarian relief and reconstruction. But they need and expect a political horizon too. Donald Trump’s plans make only the vaguest and most conditional reference to a Palestinian state, and Israelis – as well as their ultra-right government – have entrenched their opposition since the atrocities of 7 October 2023. Yet after two years of annihilation, Palestinian nationhood has won international support that many thought unimaginable.
The political fate of Palestinians is bound to the personal fate of Marwan Barghouti. After more than two decades in an Israeli jail for murder, the charismatic 66-year-old is by far the most popular Palestinian leader, widely regarded as the only figure capable of uniting factions riven by ideology and enmity. Though a member of Fatah, Mr Barghouti has criticised abuses by the Palestinian Authority and has won respect within Hamas ranks. He has led Palestinian prisoners, while the PA’s old guard are seen as self-serving, ineffective, unaccountable and essentially as security contractors for Israel in the West Bank.
The belief that Mr Barghouti can galvanise Palestinian politics, creating the momentum for statehood and lasting peace, lies behind the new international campaign for his release, backed by figures including Paul Simon, Delia Smith, Richard Branson and Margaret Atwood, and the former world leaders known as the Elders. Critically, some from the Israeli security and political establishment agree.
Mr Barghouti has long supported the two-state solution, repeatedly engaged with Israeli officials and taught himself Hebrew. His convictions – in a trial criticised as flawed by legal experts – are for ordering attacks that killed civilians during the second intifada. Gulf states pushed for him to be among the prisoners released in the ceasefire deal; Israel vetoed it. Yet murderers were freed. As one former military official observed recently: “Israel is willing to release people who did really bad things, but … it has no interest to release symbols.”
For Palestinians, Mr Barghouti – called by some their Mandela – stands for a path towards their inalienable rights. Many leaders, including in Israel itself, have moved from armed struggle to statesmanship. Israel has long complained that it has no real partner for peace. But Benjamin Netanyahu and his partners do not fear that the Israeli state could never come to terms with a man such as Mr Barghouti – they fear that it could. To free him would indicate that they could contemplate nationhood for Palestinians, which they will not tolerate as even a distant prospect. He will not be released without external pressure.
Conditions for Palestinian prisoners have worsened dramatically since 2023. Video this summer showed the far-right minister of security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, taunting and threatening a gaunt, almost unrecognisable Mr Barghouti. His family say he has been severely beaten by guards. There is concern that the government will approve a draft law introducing a mandatory death penalty for terrorism. The case for Mr Barghouti’s release is pressing. Some weeks ago the US president indicated that he might consider raising it. He should urge Israel to free Mr Barghouti, in the interests of the peace which he claims to be building in the Middle East.
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