The results from local elections across England suggest that the Tories are on course to lose power to Labour when voters elect a new parliament. Sir John Curtice, the eminent pollster, set the tone by telling the BBC that he was “looking at one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years”. The fault ultimately lies with Rishi Sunak, the prime minister. He conceded that the results were disappointing. That seemed an understatement when the Tories were losing half the council seats they were trying to defend.
Voters have stopped listening to the Conservatives. The public is fed up with rising bills that the government did not do enough to insulate them from. The shabby state of the public realm is offensive to most people. Mr Sunak might point to the re-election of Ben Houchen as Tees Valley mayor as proof that Conservatives could defy the odds. But if the swing to Labour was replicated in Tees Valley parliamentary constituencies at a general election, Sir Keir Starmer would win them all.
Labour is getting a hearing. It won control of several leave-voting councils – Hartlepool, Thurrock, Rushmoor and Redditch. These crucial contests should help exorcise the ghost of Brexit. Taking over Milton Keynes is a sign that Labour can win big in the south. The opposition also secured the newly enlarged north-east mayoralty, seeing off a stiff challenge from a strongly fancied independent, and claimed victory in Rishi Sunak’s back yard when its candidate won the race to be mayor of York and North Yorkshire. Blackpool will have a new Labour MP, Chris Webb, who won with a 26% swing against the Tories, in a clear message to Mr Sunak that his time is up.
Although these were intensely domestic elections, it was foreign affairs that caused Labour grief. Sir Keir has been slow to take positions critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza since October. This may be because the Labour leadership wanted to distance itself from the previous regime. But its authoritarian attitude to dissent and failure to express solidarity with Palestinian civilians have incensed many natural Labour supporters. Sir Keir marched in lockstep with Washington on calls for a ceasefire, which suggested this was a problem of optics, not moral urgency.
Some voters sympathetic to the Palestinians cast their ballots for alternatives to Sir Keir. Labour lost control of Oldham council, with independent candidates elected to represent areas with big Muslim communities. The effect may be permanent, as Labour also seems to have lost support to the Greens in wards with large Muslim populations. Labour’s vote share in those areas fell by 16% compared with 2021, whereas it made 5% gains nationwide. This effect may have been so pronounced that Labour’s candidate has lost the West Midlands mayoralty, the winner of which had not been declared at the time of writing.
The good news is that Labour will probably form the next government. It is also heartening to see the success of the Lib Dems, whose votes will be essential to challenge the Tories in true blue seats. The Conservatives are on 25% of the projected national vote share, the lowest level since 2013. Tactical voting will be needed to ensure that the Tories don’t squeeze through. Sir Keir ended up in a better place on the Gaza conflict. That’s a good sign as Labour moves closer to power.
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