It is not yet certain that a ground invasion of Lebanon will follow Israel’s intense attacks on Hezbollah. But the signs increasingly point that way. The swift Israeli dismissals of the US and French-led call for a temporary ceasefire followed the mobilisation of Israel Defense Forces brigades to the northern border and the chief of staff’s announcement of a possible ground operation.
Many in Israel have long believed that such an assault is inevitable at some point if citizens in the north are to live safely, given Hezbollah’s entrenchment in, and attacks from, the south of Lebanon. They see it as more necessary than ever after the Hamas attack of 7 October in southern Israel. Air and other remote assaults, however devastating, will not be enough to eradicate the threat from fighters. Hezbollah is vulnerable after the killings of so many senior figures, the loss of confidence resulting from Israeli intelligence penetration, and attacks upon its weapons stores. A delay may allow it to regroup.
