It’s hard to see how Vaughan Gething can survive as first minister in Wales. The institutional underpinning of parliamentary democracy is that the power to govern depends on majority support in the legislature. Losing a vote of no confidence in the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, earlier this week means that a trapdoor has opened under Mr Gething’s feet. The tiniest slip and he will plummet through it.
Mr Gething won’t survive by just dismissing the vote as “non-binding”. The first minister lost because two Labour Senedd members, one of whom he sacked and the other a vocal critic, did not turn up to support him. Both were said to be ill. The first minister has annoyed colleagues with his high-handed approach. A day earlier, Mr Gething’s predecessor – the usually mild-mannered Mark Drakeford – dramatically criticised the Welsh government’s decision to scrap his proposals for changes to the school holiday.
The first black leader of a European nation, Mr Gething told the Guardian earlier this year that he wanted to be judged not on his skin colour but on his ability. He’ll need those talents to win over his party. In 2021, Labour won 30 seats, or half of the Senedd. Mr Gething secured the support of only a third of those members to win the leadership. Labour has been historically a broad church, where almost everyone was welcome. Mr Gething is wrong if he only wants those singing from the same hymn sheet.
The first minister has attacked Tory opponents for failing to respect Welsh democracy. Yet his apparent contempt for its norms is at the heart of his downfall. In March, it emerged that he had lobbied regulators in favour of a company that has been prosecuted for waste crimes and whose owner had since given him £200,000 for his leadership campaign. Elections cost money, but if the source of the cash fails the smell test then surely the funds ought to be returned. That applies to Mr Gething as well as to the Conservative party, which has taken £15m from a businessman accused of making racist and misogynistic comments, including about Diane Abbott.
Labour is on course to secure a landslide victory in Commons constituencies in Wales. But Mr Gething’s personal ratings are sinking. More than half the public tell pollsters he is performing badly. Only 15% think that he’s performing well. The opposition parties could call a vote of no confidence in the government itself, rather than in the first minister. The result would be binding, and if it succeeded it would bring down the government.
The row over donations also ended the Welsh Labour government’s collaboration agreement with Plaid Cymru. Welsh Labour can only get its budget through the Senedd with support from other parties. Responding to their concerns seems urgent. Since 2019, UK ministers have disregarded constitutional norms by legislating in areas devolved to the Senedd. A Welsh first minister needs to be able to see off such challenges. Mr Gething’s government is, following the recommendations from an independent commission, working on plans for the devolution of justice, policing and rail policy. These have already been rejected by Sir Keir Starmer’s team. A rethink, should Sir Keir enter Downing Street, would benefit Wales and the wider devolutionary settlement. That will be more difficult with a lame duck leader.
