The death of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash last month was a shock. The 63‑year‑old hardliner was not only expected to run for a second term, but to be part of the looming transition: the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 85 and has health problems. Some had even thought Raisi might succeed him.
Yet the repercussions have been muted. The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for 28 June, but no one expects Raisi’s replacement to bring significant political change. The regime’s priorities are continuity and stability. It knows it may soon have to reckon with the hostility of a second Trump administration and it faces widespread discontent at home, following the suppression of the massive Woman, Life, Freedom protests. The evidence of recent years suggest that it is more worried about conservative consolidation at the top than legitimacy from below.
