Britain’s tax debate has changed. Previously the argument was whether there would be rises in an autumn budget. Now the only question is which levies the Treasury will raise.
The shift has been a two-stage process. First, economic data made it look highly improbable that Rachel Reeves could fulfil existing spending pledges, while also sticking within her self-imposed fiscal rules, on current revenue projections. She needs money. Second, the chancellor and the prime minister stopped denying that this was the case. They have not confirmed that taxes are going up, but they no longer pretend that isn’t a reasonable expectation.
