At last November’s Cop27 summit in Egypt, Rishi Sunak made a point of carving out time for a chat with Europe’s other newly appointed prime minister, Giorgia Meloni. For both leaders there was something to gain from this impromptu bilateral. As the small-boats controversy continued to grab headlines, Mr Sunak hoped to emulate Ms Meloni’s success in turning irregular migration into a profitable dividing line with the left. For her part, Ms Meloni needed her radical-right party, which has neo-fascist roots, to be seen as part of the conservative mainstream.
This week there will be another chance to exchange notes, as Ms Meloni comes to London on a two-day visit. Six months on, the Italian leader’s normalisation project has been disturbingly successful. Abroad, the hostile headlines have largely disappeared, including in the liberal media. Domestically, her poll ratings, and those of her party, are higher than at the autumn election. In some rightwing circles, Ms Meloni has begun to be seen as a potential leader of a post-Merkel conservative axis in European politics.
New times, economically and geopolitically, have played their part, alongside sharp political wits and a down-to-earth persona. As Ms Meloni’s government seeks to access pandemic recovery funds from Brussels, fiscal policy has been kept orthodox and Eurosceptic rhetoric has been heavily reined in. Ms Meloni has also impressed Nato allies with her vocal and trenchant support for Ukraine. Through the exercise of judicious caution and astute positioning, she has achieved in a short space of time the kind of influence and respectability that has always eluded Marine Le Pen. However, there are distinct signs that her government is beginning to show its true authoritarian colours. Ms Meloni’s determination to take on the “LGBT lobby”, for example, has resulted in pressure on municipalities not to allow most same-sex couples to register their children, a move that has been censured by the European parliament.
In response to the rising number of irregular migrants crossing the Mediterranean, despite previous draconian efforts at deterrence, Ms Meloni has declared a state of emergency. This will allow ministers to bypass parliament, use special powers to set up detention centres, and remove specific protections and rights. Upping the ante still further, Italy’s agriculture minister (and Ms Meloni’s brother-in-law), Francesco Lollobrigida, claimed last week that the combination of a low birthrate and high immigration was risking the “ethnic replacement” of the country’s population. Ms Meloni has refused to condemn this parroting of white replacement theory, which was too much even for some coalition allies.
The rhetoric and the approach is that of a government that has more in common with the illiberal nativism of Viktor Orbán (whom Ms Meloni has vigorously supported in his battles with Brussels) than mainstream European values. That Mr Sunak’s illegal migration bill is lauded in such circles is a dismal index of how far the prime minister’s small-boats posturing is dragging Britain in the same direction. The traumatic return of war to European soil, and a related preoccupation with a more threatening multipolar world, has allowed Ms Meloni to play the part of a staunch and loyal European ally. That has been a very useful way to detoxify her reputation and allowed her government an easy ride so far. But the insular nationalism and intolerance that fuelled Ms Meloni’s political rise remains a threat to core European ideals.
