In 2021, as Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) unexpectedly triumphed in a knife-edge federal election, one of its most stellar results was achieved in the east German state of Brandenburg. In a regional contest anticipated to be a battle between the centre-right and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a promise to raise the minimum wage helped the SPD win a direct mandate in every constituency.
That seems much longer than three years ago. On Sunday, two high-stakes regional polls will take place in Germany’s east, one in Saxony and the other in Thuringia. Then, on 22 September, it will be Brandenburg’s turn. In each contest, the AfD has a good chance of winning, a feat it has never managed before in a state election. On issues such as migration, the politics of both the Thuringia and the Saxony branches of the AfD have been singled out as particularly extreme and anti-constitutional by German intelligence services.
