When the Nobel peace laureate is announced on Friday, the committee will be hoping that its choice ages better than 2019’s. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, won the prize for ending the 20-year border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea – signing a peace agreement with President Isaias Afwerki. A year later, their new relationship facilitated a war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that killed as many as 600,000 people, displaced millions more, led to atrocities by both sides, and pushed Tigrayans into famine.
Both sides bear responsibility for failing to properly implement the deal that ended that conflict in 2022, and the African Union and US did little to ensure that a piece of paper became a durable settlement. Now violence has resurged in northern Ethiopia, and old foes are forming bizarre new pacts. Last month, seven Ethiopian regional groups announced an “Alliance for Survival” to remove the federal government. Mr Abiy’s coalition is held together by his patronage, but so far may be faring better than his rivals, united solely by shared loathing of him and riven by deep disputes. The TPLF, which controls Tigray, has previously battled the Fano militia of Amhara, and their territorial dispute endures. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea – previously accused of atrocities against Tigrayan civilians – of backing the rebel alliance. Despite Asmara’s denials, there are multiple reports of Eritrean troops in Tigray.
