The impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to ripple across the globe. The primary driver of the flurry of diplomatic activity in the Middle East is the military conflict raging thousands of miles away. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran on Tuesday came hot on the heels of Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories last week. The Russian president met his Iranian and Turkish counterparts bilaterally and for tripartite Astana process talks on Syria, where Turkey is threatening a new military offensive to drive Kurdish-led fighters away from the border. But Ukraine topped the agenda.
Turkey wants to nail down an agreement for Moscow to lift its Black Sea blockade, allowing 22m tonnes of grain to be exported. Russia wants to develop its relationships and highlight the US’s failure to isolate it. The Russian ambassador to Tehran recently declared that the two countries are now in a “single fortress”. The US has alleged that Iran plans to send Russia hundreds of drones to use in Ukraine, and Gazprom has just signed a development deal with the Iranian state oil company. Moscow and Tehran have often been wary of each other despite shared interests, but neither now feels that it has much to lose by getting closer. Russia is hardly concerned that it will face secondary sanctions over its ties to Iran. Iran is preparing for a long-term future of US sanctions. Both sense that, despite Mr Biden’s declaration that the US would not “walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia and India”, the superpower’s interest in the region is waning – while Mr Putin has made his country a serious force there again.
