The impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to ripple across the globe. The primary driver of the flurry of diplomatic activity in the Middle East is the military conflict raging thousands of miles away. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran on Tuesday came hot on the heels of Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories last week. The Russian president met his Iranian and Turkish counterparts bilaterally and for tripartite Astana process talks on Syria, where Turkey is threatening a new military offensive to drive Kurdish-led fighters away from the border. But Ukraine topped the agenda.
Turkey wants to nail down an agreement for Moscow to lift its Black Sea blockade, allowing 22m tonnes of grain to be exported. Russia wants to develop its relationships and highlight the US’s failure to isolate it. The Russian ambassador to Tehran recently declared that the two countries are now in a “single fortress”. The US has alleged that Iran plans to send Russia hundreds of drones to use in Ukraine, and Gazprom has just signed a development deal with the Iranian state oil company. Moscow and Tehran have often been wary of each other despite shared interests, but neither now feels that it has much to lose by getting closer. Russia is hardly concerned that it will face secondary sanctions over its ties to Iran. Iran is preparing for a long-term future of US sanctions. Both sense that, despite Mr Biden’s declaration that the US would not “walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia and India”, the superpower’s interest in the region is waning – while Mr Putin has made his country a serious force there again.
Mr Biden’s volte-face on Saudi Arabia is also prompted by Ukraine’s war. He vowed to make the country a pariah following the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi and declassified the intelligence assessment which concluded that Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the killing (despite Riyadh’s denials). But his moral stance was last week downgraded to an ill-judged fist bump with the crown prince – intended to avoid a respectful handshake – and the obligatory mention of human rights. Mr Biden is seeking to bring down energy prices and improve his dismal approval ratings as November’s midterm elections approach – though the Saudis played down suggestions that they would start pumping more oil, giving him a poor return so far for the image detoxification he provided.
Overshadowed by these visits is the failure to make any progress in talks in Doha on the Iran nuclear deal, leaving it on the brink of collapse. Tehran has made dramatic advances in its programme since Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement and doubled down on sanctions. One of the keenest watchers of the nuclear diplomacy warned that attempts to revive it had hit a dead end as Iran, burned by Mr Trump, seeks commitments that the US cannot make on a deal that the next administration might well break.
That is part of the US thinking behind efforts to bolster ties between Israel and Arab states. But it risks not only pushing Tehran closer to Moscow, but also heightening conflict in the region following a shift towards dialogue, including between Riyadh and Tehran. That would only produce further turbulence in global energy markets. More critically still, it increases the risk of an arms race and long-term instability.
