Serious violent crime in England and Wales should be expected to rise unless urgent steps are taken to boost the probation service. That is the alarming warning from Martin Jones, HM chief inspector of probation. He estimates that 100,000 offenders on probation are currently not being properly managed. This overstretched service cannot be expected to manage the increased workload that will follow from sentencing reforms. The deliberate stoking of public anxieties about crime by far-right activists and Reform UK is all the more reason to pay attention.
Supervising more offenders in the community is a good idea in principle. Prisons are overcrowded and short sentences are ineffective, with a high reoffending rate. When too many people are locked up for 12 months or less, and jails are too full, the continual churn and poor conditions make it difficult for prison officers to do their job. The cost-saving potential of technology in public services is often overstated. But the increased use of electronic tags is a plausible means of improving the criminal justice system overall.
