The Cop process often seems to encapsulate the broader global reaction to climate breakdown. Leaders make grand but vague pledges of action; fossil fuel lobbyists (600 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, this year) schmooze and press governments into maintaining the status quo; and scientists, civil society groups and those most affected by the climate emergency have to scream to be heard at all. The results are predictable: indecision, evasion, obstruction and buck-passing followed by desperately needed – but desperately inadequate – last-minute action.
Given the utter disarray evident as late as Saturday evening, the final outcome of Cop27 is a relief, and in one regard even a cause for celebration. The agreement to establish a loss and damage fund is a historic breakthrough, demanded for three decades by developing countries. The devil will as usual lie in the detail: who will fund it? But it should help to provide the financial assistance poorer nations need for rescuing and rebuilding as extreme weather pummels their populations and infrastructure. And it comes despite the sustained opposition of the US and (until the eleventh hour) the EU.
The language on reforming international financial institutions is a real achievement too and could, for example, help developing countries invest in renewables. Again, detail is critical – what changes will be delivered, and how quickly? – but fundamental reform is overdue. Yet these gains come alongside grave disappointments. As Alok Sharma, president of last year’s Cop26, noted, it was a battle to maintain the commitments made in Glasgow, never mind build on them. “Peaking emissions by 2025 is not in this text. Follow-through on the phasedown of coal is not in this text. The phasedown of all fossil fuels is not in this text,” he said. The loss and damage fund is necessary, but amounts to mitigation, instead of prevention; equivalent to a whipround to buy a neighbour new clothes after watching as their house burnt down – because you dropped a lit match.
Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian foreign minister and president of Cop27, says that the 1.5C temperature limit remains within reach. Technically, that is right. But politically, it is not. Global emissions would have to fall by 50% by 2030; they are currently setting new records. Since next year’s meeting will be hosted by a petrostate – the United Arab Emirates – few are optimistic about the prospects for progress there. Yet if the fossil fuel giants bear much of the responsibility, others too have failed to offer leadership. The EU could have led the way with revisions to member states’ nationally determined contributions, setting out what each country will do. The UK is offering new licences for North Sea exploration.
Over three decades, the international political system has repeatedly demonstrated its frustrating, heartbreaking and almost bizarre inability to act on a problem that has, at its heart, a simple solution: ending our dependence on fossil fuels. The most powerful nations have failed to show the way. This year’s milestone achievement – the new fund – is essentially a victory for civil society and collective action among developing countries. If, as one climate envoy suggested, it shows that “we can do the impossible”, it is these actors that must take the credit and that are providing true global leadership. Cop27 shows that they will have to continue to fight for every modest step forward, and for every fraction of a degree that can be shaved off temperature rises.
