The Guardian view on Conservative immigration policy: the threat of mass expulsions is abhorrent

Katie Lam, a junior shadow Home Office minister. ‘Some Tory MPs appear to have been unaware that their own policy is that monstrous, discovering its content only when Katie Lam spelled it out.’ Photograph: Jonathan Hordle/ITV/Shutterstock

It is too early to declare Sir Keir Starmer’s “one in, one out” migration deal with France a failure, but nor can the government claim that it is working as intended. This week, the Guardian revealed that one of the first people deported under the treaty had found his way back to the UK via a small boat. On the same day, Home Office data revealed that the number of people who had made the journey so far this year – 36,886 – had surpassed the total for 2024. The usual partisan recriminations followed. Opposition parties accuse Labour of failing to grip the problem; ministers say they are burdened by a long legacy of Conservative mismanagement. Both things can be true.

For all its deficiencies, Sir Keir’s deal with France recognises two facts that his Tory and Reform UK opponents cannot accept. First, engagement with EU states is a sine qua non of functional migration policy. Second, without some legal mechanism for accepting refugees, desperate people will always gamble on the illegal ways.