What was long predicted is now happening. Earth’s weather systems are increasingly disrupted and destructive, as a consequence of the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to devastating heatwaves in the northern hemisphere, and their role in igniting forest fires, high sea temperatures over recent months have led scientists to reiterate their warnings that we are moving fast into uncharted, dangerous territory.
Climate models have always allowed for uncertainty. For decades, scientists have been certain of the direction of travel: towards increased heat, risk and instability. But how precisely the crisis would manifest, in what order systems would break down, and how the knock-on effects would unfold, remains a subject for research and discussion. Currently, there is a debate between experts about whether the pace of global heating is accelerating or stable. The likelihood of vital ocean currents, known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, collapsing this century is also contested. One new study has suggested that a tipping point could be approaching, and that the analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has, in this respect, been too conservative.
