In a complex political landscape, Sunday’s regional elections in Catalonia duly delivered a finely balanced result. Though the Catalan branch of the Spanish Socialist party (PSC) comfortably topped the poll as the largest party, it needs to solve some challenging parliamentary arithmetic in order to govern. Days and weeks of haggling and horse-trading loom.
The underlying message of the election, however, was much clearer. After years of extraordinary turbulence and bitter strife, the momentum that drove the campaign for Catalonia’s independence appears to have subsided. For the first time in more than a decade, pro-independence parties failed collectively to win either a majority of votes, or a majority of seats in the regional parliament.
Carles Puigdemont, the still-exiled leader of the hardline separatist party Together, claimed on Monday that he would seek to put together a minority pro‑independence coalition. But though he intends to return to Catalonia once a new amnesty law is enacted, his chances of success are slim given the numbers and significant divisions between the nationalist parties. If neither the socialists nor Puigdemont can cobble together the necessary support, a new election – for which there is little public appetite – will be held.
The socialist surge represents political vindication for Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez. In contrast with his conservative predecessors, Mr Sánchez has consistently sought to take a more conciliatory approach towards the Catalan independence movement, in the hope of detoxifying relations with Madrid. Pardons for nine separatist leaders, who were jailed for their part in staging the illegal referendum of 2017, were followed by the controversial amnesty legislation in the spring. Covering about 400 people, including civil servants and other public sector workers caught up in the events of seven years ago, the bill was deeply unpopular even within sections of Mr Sánchez’s own party, but has helped dial down tensions in Catalonia.
The cumulative and welcome result is a changed and less charged political environment. Support in principle for independence currently stands at 42%, though secession is opposed by a majority. But one pre-election poll found that just 27% of voters believed it should be the priority for the next Catalan parliament. The volatile geopolitical context, the cost of living crisis, and concern over more bread-and-butter matters such as the state of public services, have placed nationalist aspirations on the backburner. And as elsewhere in Spain, the effects of the climate emergency are forcing their way on to the political agenda. The outgoing pro-independence administration, led by the moderate Catalan Republican Left (ERC), was criticised over its sluggish response to a crisis of water scarcity in the region after three years of minimal rainfall.
It adds up to a sea change in Catalan politics after the independence storms of the recent past, which were dealt with so heavy-handedly by Mariano Rajoy’s conservative government. Mr Sánchez would not have taken the political risk of granting an amnesty had he not required pro-independence parties’ support to shore up his fragile coalition. But his strategy has helped deliver an impressive outcome for the Socialists in Catalonia. More importantly, with challenges to be faced on many fronts, the signs of a less combative, less polarised relationship emerging between Madrid and Barcelona is good news for the country as a whole.
