A trio of byelections in England was good news for the main party leaders but not necessarily for their parties. Rishi Sunak can breathe a little easier for not losing three seats. The Tory party, however, will be worried about being defeated in bluest Britain. Sir Keir Starmer has shown he can win in a Conservative heartland, as New Labour did in 1997, overturning a 20,000-seat majority in North Yorkshire. However, his party’s failure to win in London raises doubts about its electoral strategy. Voters seem to be saying that the Conservative party deserves to lose at the next election, but the Labour party doesn’t – yet – deserve to win outright.
Thursday’s votes might be less than they seem. Turnout in these byelections was low: on average 25% below that in the 2019 general election. Party loyalists often see them as a protest vote. At the next election, Britain’s political map will also be redrawn. Of this week’s three byelection seats, only Uxbridge and South Ruislip will be largely as it is today.
