Few politicians manage, in Winston Churchill’s phrase, to make the weather. Joe Biden was particularly poorly placed to do so when he took office, inheriting a pandemic that was raging unchecked, a struggling economy and a crisis of democracy itself. War in Ukraine and a cost of living crisis soon followed; relations with Beijing continue to deteriorate, as last week’s row over the Chinese balloon demonstrated.
The president’s achievements, laid out in Tuesday’s State of the Union address, are striking, despite disappointments along the way. He passed an enormous stimulus package within weeks of taking office; showed real leadership with his climate change deal; and pushed through bipartisan legislation on infrastructure. Unemployment is at a five-decade low. But while he may be reshaping the economic paradigm, he has not yet shifted the mood. Beaten down by rising prices, more than six in 10 Americans think he has achieved “not very much” or “little or nothing”. It may be, as the administration hopes, that measures such as capping insulin prices make themselves more fully felt in months to come. But hours before Mr Biden spoke, the boss of the Federal Reserve indicated it may have to keep raising interest rates to tackle inflation.
There are more clouds on the horizon. The loss of the House of Representatives has brought renewed struggle over the debt ceiling. Major legislative wins are behind him; Republican investigations into his son Hunter, misplaced classified documents and other issues lie ahead. Mr Biden’s appeal to bipartisanship was made not to persuade, but to remind voters that he stands for decency and reason – in contrast to the increasing extremity in the GOP – and to underline that the obstacles to come will not be of his making. In a deft and well-delivered speech, he invoked ideals of cooperation, while clapping back at heckling and jeering Republicans with confidence.
State of the Union speeches don’t change voters’ minds overnight, though messages do filter through. But they can shift the mood within parties more quickly. Only 37% of Democrats want the president to run in 2024, not least because he is already 80. But his spry performance succeeded in cementing him as the assumed candidate for 2024, and sounded like a campaign preview, with its repeated calls to “finish the job”. The message was relentlessly focused on economic populism – his “blue collar blueprint” for Americans “left behind or treated like they’re invisible”.
In the presence of the parents of Tyre Nichols, the 29-year-old beaten to death by Memphis police officers, he spoke of the need for police reform, to the approval of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others, but touched only in passing on abortion rights (and was similarly brief on immigration and LGBTQ+ rights). That reflects his limited scope for action, and it made the Republican response from Sarah Huckabee Sanders – railing at a “leftwing culture war” – look arguably more out of touch as well as disturbing. But it was a conspicuous and disappointing omission in the first State of the Union since the overturning of Roe v Wade, especially given the role that abortion played in preventing a “red wave” in last year’s midterms, and the ongoing threat to rights.
The country’s divisions remain as deep as when he took office. Polls show that most Americans would be dissatisfied or angry if either frontrunner – Mr Biden or Mr Trump – won the next election. The president inherited a troubled nation, and there are storms ahead.
