In the summer of 2020, Belarus appeared to be on the cusp of an extraordinary democratic revolution. On the streets of Minsk and other cities, an unprecedented cross-section of civil society braved ferocious state violence to protest against a rigged presidential election. For the first time in decades, Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian grip on power appeared to be loosening. The opposition’s charismatic figurehead, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, told the European parliament: “Belarus has woken up.”
The mass summer protests did indeed prove a turning point, but in the wrong direction. Amid fierce repression, mass detention, alleged torture and the forced exile of figures such as Ms Tsikhanouskaya, Mr Lukashenko stayed put. On Sunday, in a contest in which no genuine opposition candidate has been permitted to run, he will celebrate a seventh sham election victory after more than 30 years in power.
